Coffee robot profitability is worked out before buying, in four lines: what the machine takes in excluding VAT, what each drink sold costs, the fixed costs for the month, then the number of sales needed to cover them. From that come the monthly margin and the payback period. This guide details each step, the mistakes that skew the calculation, and how to redo it for your own location.
ROBOKAFÉ's figures (machine price, sales assumptions, margin scenarios) are not copied here: they are kept up to date on the investment page, whose simulator applies exactly this method.
What "profitable" means for a coffee robot
Three figures are often confused, and they do not answer the same question.
- Margin per sale: the price of a drink excluding VAT, minus what it costs to prepare and to collect the payment. It tells you whether the selling price is set correctly.
- Monthly margin: the sum of the margins per sale for the month, minus fixed costs. This is the figure the simulator shows, and the one that tells you whether the machine covers its costs.
- What you keep: the monthly margin after tax and social contributions. It depends on your legal status and on the depreciation of the machine, covered in our article on the taxation of a coffee robot.
This article stops at the monthly margin before tax, then at the payback period: that is the basis you will present to your bank or your accountant.
Step 1: revenue excluding VAT
Revenue excl. VAT = price incl. VAT ÷ (1 + VAT rate) × number of sales.
The price shown on the robot's screen includes VAT. The VAT collected is not yours: you pay it over to the State. Always reason excluding VAT, otherwise the margin looks wider than it is. The rate depends on the product and on how it is consumed; the simulator shows the rate it uses in its assumptions, to be confirmed by your accountant.
The price to use is not that of your cheapest drink, but the average price actually paid: an espresso, a milk-based drink and an iced drink do not bring in the same amount. This average depends on the menu you offer, the subject of our article on the menu of a coffee robot.
Step 2: variable costs, sale by sale
Each drink sold uses something. These are the variable costs, in proportion to the number of sales:
- coffee, milk, sugar, syrups and sauces;
- the cup and its lid;
- card payment fees, depending on your provider.
Margin per sale = revenue excl. VAT per sale - variable costs per sale.
The cost of ingredients depends on your suppliers and recipes: a milk-based drink costs more than an espresso. The simulator estimates these costs as a share of the selling price; as soon as you have your suppliers' quotes, redo this calculation with your own costs. Bank fees weigh more than expected on small amounts: our article on the payment terminal of a coffee robot explains how to compare them.
Step 3: fixed costs for the month
They fall due every month, whether the machine sells a lot or a little:
- the location: a fixed rent paid to the owner of the site;
- support, optional, if you subscribe to it;
- the internet connection, electricity and insurance;
- local taxes, such as the CFE after the first year, and your accountant's fees.
A fee calculated as a share of sales is not a fixed cost: it goes with the variable costs, since it follows revenue. This is one of the choices that changes the calculation most, detailed in our article on the location contract. The simulator, for its part, counts the location as a monthly rent that you pay yourself.
Step 4: break-even point and monthly margin
Break-even (sales per day) = fixed costs for the month ÷ (margin per sale × opening days in the month).
Break-even is the number of sales per day from which the machine covers its fixed costs. Below it, each month costs money; above it, each extra sale adds its full margin.
Monthly margin = margin per sale × sales per day × opening days - fixed costs for the month.
Count the opening days of the location, not those of the machine. A robot can sell day and night, but an office building closes at weekends and a shopping centre in the evening. Then compare the break-even point with the footfall you have observed on site: a location that must already convert a large share of its passers-by to reach break-even leaves little room for error. The criteria for judging this footfall are in our article on choosing the location.
The payback period
Payback period (in months) = purchase price of the machine excl. VAT ÷ monthly margin.
This is the time needed for the margin to repay the purchase, before tax. If the machine is financed by a bank loan or a leasing company, add the cost of financing to the monthly fixed costs. The investment page indicates from how many sales per day the machine pays for itself within the period we aim for, and the simulator gives the payback period for each of its scenarios.
Keep in mind that these periods are projections: no machine is yet operated by a ROBOKAFÉ customer, and only the actual footfall of the location decides the sales.
Calculating three scenarios rather than one
A single calculation gives an impression of precision that does not exist. Make three:
- Cautious: the number of sales you are fairly sure to reach, slow months included.
- Expected: what the observed footfall suggests.
- Optimistic: what happens if the location keeps its promises.
The project is solid if the cautious scenario stays above break-even. If it only becomes profitable in the optimistic scenario, look for another location or a lower fee. The simulator on the investment page presents its own tiers on the same principle.
Also calculate over twelve months, not over a typical month: sales follow the location's calendar (holidays, festivities, season). Our article on the risks of investing in a coffee vending machine shows how to take this into account.
What makes the margin vary
In order of importance:
- The number of sales per day, so the location. No setting makes up for a site without footfall.
- The selling price, which you set yourself from the management app.
- The cost of the location, fixed or proportional, which you negotiate.
- The cost of ingredients, which depends on your suppliers and recipes.
- The availability of the machine: a stock-out or a fault that goes unnoticed means a day without sales, while the costs keep running.
Once the machine is in service, these same lines are followed each month: our article on the dashboard of a coffee robot lists the indicators to watch.
Mistakes that skew the calculation
- Calculating incl. VAT. VAT is not yours; counting it inflates the margin.
- Taking the lowest price as the average price, or the highest.
- Counting every day of the month in a location that closes at weekends or in summer.
- Forgetting small costs: card fees, insurance, connection, local taxes.
- Building the forecast on a peak month, then multiplying it by twelve.
- Forgetting your own time: restocking and cleaning take little time, but if the location is far from home, travel counts too.
- Confusing margin and cash: the machine is paid for at purchase, or at the pace of the financing, whereas it is depreciated over several years.
Doing the calculation for your location
The method takes four steps, and it is only worth the figures you put into it. Start with the simulator on the investment page: set the number of sales per day, the average price and the cost of your location, then compare its scenarios. Then redo the calculation with your actual supplier quotes and the negotiated fee.
To discover the machine, see the coffee robot page. If you have a location in mind, describe it to us: we will redo the calculation with you, on your assumptions, and tell you what remains to be checked.
